COVID-19 in Illinois: November 13th-14th Weekend Update

By Sandra Folarin and Jeffrey Softcheck, MBA

Earlier this weekend on Friday, November 13th, 15,415 newly confirmed or probable cases were logged for the day, with a case positivity rate of 14.47%. This is particularly concerning, given that Illinois is testing over 100,000 people per day.

The biggest concern now is EMS region 7, which includes South Cook, Grundy, Kankakee, and Will counties. Between the 11 hospitals throughout these counties, a staggering number of 23 ICU beds remain.

Additionally, the growth rate for ICU bed utilization continues to climb each week. The rate is currently up 154% over 4 weeks, with growth 20%, 25%, 29%, and 32% each week. Following that trend, we could see 40% growth in the ICU bed utilization rate by Thanksgiving week.  

As of recently, the lowest positivity rate for a region is Region 5. Their rate is 12.8%, up from 10.6% the previous week. Deaths follow bed utilization, which follows positivity rate, so it’s important to bring that number down throughout all regions and counties to avoid more deaths.

As of Saturday, November 14th, it seems that some precautions have been taken to potentially begin to turn the numbers around. 11,028 newly confirmed cases or probable cases were logged for a case positivity rate of 9.64%. There’s a slight glimmer of hope in these numbers, as it is the first time since Election Day on November 3rd that the case positivity rate has fallen below 10%. Unfortunately, the weekly test positivity is off the charts for almost every region in IL. Within Region 7 specifically, test positivity is growing at a steep rate, leading to more hospitalizations.

There were 166 additional deaths logged today, however the state says that 6 of those should have been attributed to Friday, 11/13. Therefore, this should change yesterday’s death total from 27 to 93, and today’s total from 166 to 100.

The ICU bed utilization is down slightly as well, though not necessarily for COVID patients. Deaths are up 138% in the past 4 weeks. This may be creating the new bed capacity that appears, but this is the opposite of what we want to see.

Take it one day at a time. We can change the momentum, especially if we continue to keep test positivity below 10% in the next few days. What you do today affects the numbers a week to two weeks down the line. Stay vigilant, stay safe, and mask up.

This blog post was adapted from IMPACT Data Specialist Jeffrey Softcheck’s Facebook posts.

Sandra Folarin is currently a first-year medical student at the University of Illinois College of Medicine and is a member of the Urban Medicine Program. She also serves as a medical student intern for the IMPACT Team.